Checking In

Not much has happened, except for Romney foreign policy behavior that further strengthens the likelihood of my electoral map coming to fruition.  I have a hard time understanding the math his team conducted that has him winning an election based on far right policy.  I thought by now he would have begun to move towards the center; however, with each move he keeps moving in the opposite direction.  The voters he has secured are not going anywhere, the whole point is to attract the undecideds and Independents.  Bizarre.

Additionally, I discovered this week that the folks at the University of Illinois also have a forecast model in play that has the likelihood of an Obama victory at 99.8% with 313.3 expected electoral votes (pictured above).  I disagree with their map that has Virginia leaning red.  I am not sure what polling suggests this to be the case.  The latest Rasmussen has a 49% to 48% Obama lead in the state, with Rasmussen generally leaning a little to the right.  On 9/16 PPP had a 49% to 45% advantage to Obama.

The markets have caught up somewhat on InTrade, with Obama trading up 10 points to 65 (still undervalued).  Nate Silver has a 75% chance of Obama winning in November with a 90% likelihood of victory if the election was held today.  Sam Wang over at Princeton shows a median electoral vote count at 313-225 favoring Obama.  For me, no change… still calling a 332-206 race with the map staying the same for now.